Here is something von Wright wrote towards the end of his life - in October 1990, to be precise. I could call it the pessoptimist's manifesto.
Postscript to “Science and Reason”. Written in 1990 by G. H. von Wright as a reaction to all the negative critics of the book published in 1986.
Translated from the Norwegian by Rasmus Kamper
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“Science and Reason” appeared in the autumn of 1986. As I say in the preface, the book is an extended version of a lecture prepared for the symposium arranged the year before by the European Science Foundation in Colmar.
To the author's astonishment the book caused widespread reaction - or perhaps more precisely stir - first in Finland, thereafter in Sweden. The stronger reactions were altogether negative. They also got a somewhat official stamp by first being put forward during the Finnish Science Days in Helsinki in January 1987. I myself was absent, but the reactions were certainly conveyed by the press, especially by the social democrat press, where one of them, for lack of arguments, employed altogether incredible abuse against the author. I cannot say I was hurt, but I felt a bit uneasy by such a level in a debate that attempted to be, if not cultivated, then at least to some extent cultural. The debate has not changed my personal relations to those who were involved.
In Sweden, the daily Svenska Dagbladet paid attention to the book with one review and no less than 18 articles about the book's theme. As suspected, the level was overall higher in Sweden than in Finland. Nevertheless, the wisdom in much of what was written, led my thoughts to Holberg's Erasmus Montanus.
What sparked these highly emotionally charged reactions? Apparently I touched some weak spot, by calling into question something that one was bound to take for granted, unless one intended to question the foundation of our way of life and thinking. Some actually felt they could see the acts of cruelty carried out by Pol Pot's regime in the extrapolation of my way of thinking. The ongoing integration of the globe into the technological life style, market economy, consumption and ideology of growth was the path of progress. It had to lead towards better conditions for human beings all over the world. True, the goal was still far in the future, and there were rather disturbing indications as to our progress. But the path was already charted, and no real alternative was within sight. The idea that technological developments along with industrial forms of production perhaps were about to undermine the biological conditions for mankind's continued existence, was - and had to be - unimaginable. Nothing seemed to have provoked my readers more than the suggestion that mankind perhaps had chosen a path, which rendered her unfit as a biological species for this world, and which could lead to the extinction of the species.
What I have said above may give the impression that I intend to appear as a prophet of doom with my book. However, this is not the case. I make no predictions about the future. Pindar's words, as I quote in the preface, have surprisingly been confirmed by the recent years events.
The reader should take the book’s subtitle seriously: "Attempt at an understanding". I have always felt a strong need to comprehend the world I am born into. A starting point for my thinking has been the rapid and extensive changes in our external conditions caused by the technological development. For someone born and raised after the Second World War, the changes must appear considerably less and therefore more natural than for someone having a conscious life stretching back to the nineteen-twenties. The changes have mainly been caused by the development of science. Research has, so to speak, become the industrial society's most important force of production (produktivkraft), to make use of Marxist terminology. This situation did not apply to the technological innovations laying the ground for the early industrial revolution in the nineteenth century. But that this would happen at a later point in time, had been foretold (as in a dream) ever since a modern understanding and a scientific picture of the world developed in the late renaissance and baroque. The dream itself was an expression of a certain view about man’s place in the world, a certain view with roots in our Judeao-Christian civilization and - ultimately - in religious mythology and saga. Other cultures have created other pictures of man, and their intellectual and scientific activities have had a far more practical adaptation than ours.
To someone who has dedicated his life to science, insight into these connections is also of personal significance. Not only does it help him to comprehend his own time better, but also to better understand himself and his complicity in what happen.
Some critics have claimed that I do not draw a sufficiently positive picture of the scientific advances in our century. However, I think they are evaluating the situation wrongly, and that is because of two reasons that are connected.
One reason is the enormous technological development since the Second World War, and in particular, high technology's constantly growing dependence on and relation with advanced science. The border between pure and applied science, between science and technology, is about to blur. Then technological innovations appear as easily as scientific advances. To land on the moon or transplant a heart becomes, according to this popular opinion, examples of scientific success. But this is an illusion. Surprisingly, the theories behind many of our most recent and most spectacular technological miracles have their origin in ideas conceived and framed during the three centuries between Galileo and Einstein - a period of time, which in the future, as I see it, will be distinguished as a rounded epoch in the history of science.
The other illusion has to do with the integration of science into economic life made possible by technology. Research is imperative for the development of products in industry, which in its turn is needed to maintain and improve prosperity. In this way, the question about research and education has in quite a different way than earlier become an object of public discussion. We concentrate on science. But a consequence of this is that science, to a lesser degree than earlier, lives and develops according to its own internal rules. More often it conforms to the economic and political conditions of society. Pathetic declamations about the freedom of research and the intrinsic value of the search for truth far too often conceal this fact.
Of course, science has recorded important achievements in the latter half of this century too. The most important is the breaking of the genetic code. The new insights into the living cell can be said to be a counterpart to the experimental interference in the atoms inner core, which happened at the beginning of our century. Both discoveries did open revolutionary technological prospects. The first became reality by the mastery of the atomic bomb and nuclear power. The latter initiated preparations for the interference and manipulations that have lead to changes in the genetic structure of plants and animals. The former discovery frightens by its threat of massive extermination – intentional or accidental. The latter makes mankind the master of creation in a more pervasive manner than all earlier control over and manipulation of nature.
Considered as changes in the scientific world picture, both atomic explosion and genetic manipulation are nevertheless less profound than the changes in the ideas about space and time, and matter and causality, which was caused by the theory of relativity and the quantum theory. However it isn't out of the question that similar changes in the scientific world of concepts are about to occur also today, although they do not rest on equally spectacular theoretical constructions as those encountered by the turn of the century. I do not think of the holistic ideas that I refer to in the book. It is still difficult to estimate their impact on the scientific way of thinking. A line of development within mathematics and theoretical physics has become known under the popular name Chaos Theory. It has taken off in recent years, but the origin goes as far back as to the nineteenth century. It is related to the study of irreversible and non-deterministic processes in certain dynamical physical systems. The study has contributed to the undermining of the ideas characterizing the classical scientific world picture. I can imagine that there reside rudiments of new patterns of thought here, which gradually also will change the requirements of rational understanding. These requirements have led to the well-known difficulties in the interpretation of the meaning of some microphysical theories. Therefore, the prolonged crisis in the foundations of physics will perhaps not be overcome, but will merely stop being troublesome to the mind.
It can be worthwhile to note that the two events in the domain of science which I find most important today - the mapping of the gene and the study of unstable dynamic systems - partly have had opposite impacts on what in general is called our world picture. While the last study weakened the impact from previously deterministic conceptions, the first has given nourishment to a new form of determinism. I think among other things of the chances of diagnosing hereditary predispositions for diseases, and to prevent and in other ways control their development through genetic manipulations, thereby reducing the scope of coincidence. The fate of the individual seems both predetermined and possible to anticipate in a new way. This insight has psychological consequences, and, if genetic manipulation on a large scale becomes reality, also social effects. The structure of entire populations can be shaped through systematic manipulation of the individuals’ inherited genetic codes.
The technological advances and innovations have, as a matter of facts, rendered problematic mankind's relation with nature. The problem also has an ethical dimension that recently has become even more important. Is it correct to use arms with such a huge capability of destruction as the bombs over Hiroshima and Nagasaki? If not, how shall one avoid a repetition? Is it correct to interfere in the foundation of life in the way genetic engineering and advanced surgery are now in the process of making a reality? If not, what control over the scientific achievements can safeguard us against abuses? The answer to the last question is still altogether dim. Perhaps the problem is not solvable. The hefty debate about for example medical ethics demonstrates that the question has been raised. But I allow myself to be skeptical of the practical effects of the intelligent and philanthropic researchers attempt to answer them. Ethics has become a catchword and a fashion. With that comes the risk of the problems becoming institutionalized. That would make them less accessible to insight and common judgment.
Another area where the relation between man and nature has become critical is the rapid and enormous strains on the biosphere re[resented by the industrial technology together with high standards of living in the .industrial world and the increase in population in the developing world. It is not anymore merely a matter of pollution of air and water, deforestation and desertification. Those processes of nature created by mankind – such as depletion of the ozone layer and the greenhouse effect - have become global threats against the continuation of life, and perhaps they are irreversible. Yet only five years ago one spoke very little about these dangers.
During the years that have passed since Science and Reason was written, one has become far more conscious about environmental issues. Certainly, an atmosphere of what I will denote as environmental hysteria is prevailing. Researchers are shouting in chorus that something must be done, and even the most ignorant populists and politicians drape themselves at present in green.
I will not, of course, spread doubt about the importance of discussion and research, and even less about the significance of protective measures. One cannot help noticing that the hullabaloo also evokes sarcasm and laughter. On the one hand the players agree completely that the boat navigates towards the cliffs where the shipwreck threatens. On the other hand a comprehensive powerlessness prevails, perhaps also aversion toward changing the course. I will try to explain myself a bit more clearly.
We speak about an acceptable growth. However, as this is usually understood, it embodies a contradiction. Continuous damage to the environment has to lessen, and destructions of the type we now are witnessing in different parts of the dissolved USSR, must if possible be repaired. The excessive consumption in the rich countries must be reined in, and the poor part of the world must be prevented from sinking deeper into misery. But at the same time the growth in the industrial world must continue. One will not allow lowering the standards of living, forcing people to give up the thousands of new toys, for instance in the form of electronic equipment, which the high-tech industry is pouring at an accelerating pace onto a constantly expanding market. It has been said that these two opposite trends imply each other. Without growth, no leveling of prosperity. The train of thought is not difficult to follow, and partly correct it is as well. Nevertheless, I do believe that in the longer term this will lead us towards a frontier, which we will be unable to return from. The biosphere simply cannot endure the growing stress and strain caused if this controlled program of growth is realized.
This is what I believe. How it goes, nobody can know. I could provide a great many reasons to support my belief, but I will not do so here. The concluding claim is that the contradiction I see in the concept of an acceptable growth can only be resolved through a motion in the opposite direction or through something that could be called a cooling down of the world economy. People in the industrial world have to learn to live a scantier life. They have to give up needs they have taken for granted; needs that without doubt they could do without.
Can the trend turn and take such a course? In theory yes, of course. But how is that in practice?
It is not possible to turn history back to let's say the nineteen-thirties, and proceed from the then prevailing level as if nothing has happened. Such regressions are perhaps not altogether unknown in history. But they are probably impossible in our times, which are full of rapid changes in production methods and organizational changes. There is, so to speak, nothing to relapse to. An attempt to lower consumption and cool down the economic depends on a number of changes. No economic expertise can imagine the depth and extent of these problems. Therefore, no political leadership can risk creating such changes. A relocation of the production from producing all that the wealthy countries comfortably could do without, without having to suffer, to produce the useful goods the poor part of the world needed, would either lead to mass unemployment or call for sacrifices that only a small minority might think of embarking upon voluntarily. An attempt at carrying this thought to its logical conclusion could be useful. Supposedly a good many including myself would think that this alternative would be politically and psychologically unreasonable.
In view of these contradictions and difficulties it is difficult to believe in a sensible and methodical solution of mankind's dilemma. It's tempting to resign and allow everything to proceed as hitherto. I believe that such a resignation over fate already has happened in people's heart, although the mouths continue to confess/profess a hope. We will probably still keep hearing these confessions for a long time in the form of resolutions from international congresses, symposiums or committees, agreements about reduced emission and attempts on re-establishing a nature which already is being plundered. All this takes place at one table while there are negotiations at another table about wage increases and tax reductions and about different initiatives to stimulate the economics and strengthen company’s international competitiveness. As long as growth is the all-important goal, decisions made at the last table will complicate or render impossible the wishes at the first table.
The pessimism expressed in “Science and Reason”, has over the years deepened in me. I cannot anymore stand up and defend reason as a hope for mankind. That of course does not mean that I have given up reason in personal considerations or in relations to my fellow human beings. I still urge the small circle I can reach through my words to reasonable reflection.
A frequently recurring accusation against the author of “Science and Reason” is that the expression of pessimism in itself creates uneasiness and seems to paralyze and prevent action. In a certain sense this is probably correct. But I find it far more irresponsible - and at the same time paralyzing - to assert an optimism which involves quietly allowing everything to proceed as usual in the conviction that eventually the problem will probably be resolved by the means of further research and new technologies, and in the balance between supply and demand of the free markets. It appears that governments have sunk into what we may call an optimism of impotence or powerlessness, keeping the populations they govern in a similar state of trance. One has to fight this false optimism to the best of one’s ability. But I do not believe one can rid oneself of it before having experienced the desperation that on sober consideration of mankind’s situation must follow. Certainly, this is how I view it.
A thought that has been expressed in the writings of many cultures and religious mythologies is that only through times of trial and suffering can man acquire the wisdom that can lead to changes in its way of life. Such suffering can hit a human being in many ways. It can be caused by war, plague, hunger and violent natural disasters. It is not unimaginable that we stand on the threshold of a time where suffering on a large scale will pour over us. The global order of the world appears more and more as an unstable system of the freakish and unpredictable kind, similar to what science has recently started to observe. Who could for instance have known that the huge empire in the east would collapse in such a short time and practically disappear from the political map? Or that the force of a revealed religion in our enlightened time would prepare a global confrontation which threatens to upset the foundations of the world economy? At the same time, the western national states are disintegrating under the pressure of economic and political forces demanding integration and uniformity. A situation not unlike the one that prevailed on our continent before the dawn of modern times is about to emerge. It might be instructive to consider ourselves in this remote mirror.
Helsinki, October 1990
Georg Henrik von Wright
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